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  The Economic & Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa HEARD The Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research Division University of Natal, Durban www.und.ac.za/und/heard
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  Presentation Structure • HIV/AIDS in South Africa • The Demographic Impact • Economic Impact • Social Impact • The Impact on Democratic Governance
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  HIV/AIDS in South Africa
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  a % KwaZulu-Natal Mpumalanga Free State North-West Province Gauteng South Africa Eastern Cape Northern Cape Northern Province Western Cape Source
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  HIV prevalence by age group ANC attendees, South Africa 0 v 10 en l 20 30 (%40 <20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 age group (years) H V I p re
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  HIV Positive South Africans A projection 0 1000000 p2000000 p 3000000 oti la 4000000 n5000000 6000000 7000000 1995 2000 2005 2010 years o u Source
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  Demographic Impact HIV/AIDS will impact on South Africa’s population in both form and structure.
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  in South Africa see the Medical Research Council’s “The impact of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa”, available at www.mrc.ac.za/bod/
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  orphans in South Africa. By 2010 it is estimated that there will be approximately 2 million AIDS orphans in this country. It is thought that approximately
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  The incubation period of HIV is thought to be about 5-8 years in developing countries such as South Africa, but may be longer in the West. During
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  • The structure of demand will also change – e.g. increase in demand for medical goods and services • Consumption in South Africa is, however, constrained more
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  that there will be a severe shortage of teachers in South Africa in the next 5-10 years (Badcock-Walters, 2001 at www.und.ac.za/und/heard).
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  with South Africa’s disproportionately young population, is expected to increase crime and even lead to political and social instability. Alternatively
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  underpinnings of development”. HIV/AIDS is the single greatest threat to development in South Africa, and the prospects for the nation, and for Kwa
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  Conclusions • HIV has already reached very high levels in South Africa and is set to rise for a few more years • The resultant increase in death
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  in South Africa • Our greatest concern is the impact that HIV will have on our children • Innovation in, and commitment to fighting this problem are required

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